As the new world order prepares to gather around the negotiating table at Copenhagen so Obama and the Chinese PM will now attend.
Their initial recourse almost not to do so has been averted.
For Obama something of a major back-tracking from the ‘Change’ he promised just over 10 months ago. He resembles more of a sceptical politician and of someone who himself is meekly led rather than leads. Indeed his pledge to cut emission’s by 17% to 2020 on 2005 levels is a very crude way of massaging the figures, it reminds me of the bad old days of the Blair premiership when being visionary was inviting rock stars to Downing Street! The Kyoto Protocol was agreed on 1990 levels so in real terms if you are to compare the figure is more like 6% cut. It’s worth bothering but hardly the breakthrough we might have hoped for.
From the Chinese perspective their pledge on the table will be to cut the growth in emissions by 45% (that’s optimistic), by 2020 again based on 2005 levels of pollutants.
Meekly they say that they are at the back-end of the industrial revolution and should be allowed this smog ridden development just like the west did all those years back. I suppose that is a little like saying if Europe can start two world wars, we should be permitted to do so too (this is not meant to say that China wouldn’t do that, merely to illustrate that it would be politically completely unacceptable). Hardly an argument that one can reasonably debate with, reason was long since lost. We exist now not in the 19th or 20th centuries but the 21st. Please sir, there are other ways.
Through these meek words the world will no doubt have to wait for an agreement that means anything on climate change. Some hinted months ago that it would become the next Doha merry-go-round. They have sadly been proven right.
America could have taken the lead and stepped onto foot-plate, instead they have politely taken the platform beneath. If Obama had have said jump, the Chinese, Indians and others in the developing world would have had their hands forced. Instead we are left with a weak leadership from those whose our future most depends.
So back to Copenhagen and it will be the likes of our European heads of state to lead the world into radical action against climate change. Here in Britain these warm words have in the past led to few actions though signs are not a glum as one might think. Elsewhere within Europe the Nordic countries have led on emission reductions over the past couple of decades and there are further rays of sunlight to be positive about, whether it be European legislation on emission reduction or countries such as Portugal aiming to make a wholesale change toward renewable energy production.
The route of this posturing either way cannot be seen in isolation. The US China and others regard emissions reduction being in conflict with economic growth, as Sir Nicolas Stern said in his report over the long-term the opposite will be the case, as climate change impacts them and us closer to home. New Orleans and Katrina was a very stark example of this. For me it is a question of whether economic growth is really a necessity.
Through production, consumption and disposal we are destroying the planet. Happiness and material wealth almost never go hand in hand, on the contrary we are 3 times richer in Britain than in the late sixties yet our happiness levels have stayed static. Meanwhile in Sweden a society that is both Greened and socialised so to speak they are the 2nd happiest country on earth. This example at least teaches us you can live in a more harmonious way with nature and be happy.
I am not saying there should not be a balancing of wealth between nations and in a way I feel for the likes of China and India. At the same time we must not destroy our planet and see that there are other ways round this, unfortunately for the politicians this route takes cooperation. If only the governments of the west had as much nerve as they do to fill the bank coffers as that of the renewable energy industry and combating poverty in Africa perhaps we wouldn’t be so screwed.
At the end of the day this argument is one of political bravery or none. If Obama and others had that bravery 6% wouldn’t be the start. They don’t and once again a opportunity has passed them by.