Earlier this week the boundary commission published its proposals for the redrawing of constituencies to Westminster.
I have never agreed with the plan to reduce the number of MP’s to 600 and have always thought it a ploy to weaken the scrutiny over the executive, and as is ever the case with any Conservative or Labour government, gerrymander the boundaries to an extent that the other loses out!
I also hate the word ‘fair’ when used by a Tory. This is inevitably the term Cameron et al used when describing the current arrangements as not so, because Labour MP’s have smaller average electorates and tend to win with a lower number of votes. It is not that hard to realise the issue is more complex than that and that seeing as Labour MP’s tend to represent urban areas there are a lower proportion of people registered and turnout is also usually lower, hence the lower overall votes. So instead of being ‘fair’ Cameron foisted the boundary commission with a strict set of criteria for the new seats without taking on board things such as the lower registration in urban areas, hence giving the Tories an ‘unfair’ advantage. But we know they don’t really care about that.
All this aside I decided to look at Brighton where my party has an MP and the proposals are for significant changes to the boundaries.
The current arrangement gives the city itself three seats (Hove, Pavillion and Kemptown) and the neighbouring town of Lewes (and hinterland) a fourth. The new boundaries if excepted would reduce this to three and a half. The hinterland of Lewes (Seaford) goes to a new Uckfield seat, meawhile Lewes itself is attached to the current Kemptown seat minus Queens Park ward. Meanwhile instead of having a central Brighton Pavillion seat and a neighbouring Hove seat with perhaps Regency ward, the commission has instead opted to take out the northern half of the current Pavillion and put it into Hove, while Pavillion itself gains three of the most southern wards of Hove, and Queens Park.
So what we now have is a central seafront constituency, surrounded to the West and North by a new Brighton and North Hove seat and to the East by Lewes and East Brighton seat.
Looking at the biased that the commission may or may not have been aware of. All the Green wards are concentrated in the seafront seat, making Caroline Lucas probably now the MP with the safest seat. Meanwhile the Tory voting suburbs of the North have been put into Hove further diluting the chance of either Labour or the Greens capturing it in the near future. Meanwhile just two Labour wards remain in the Lewes and East Brighton seat, while the seat is further diluted with Tory countryside. The twist here is that the incumbent Lewes MP is a Lib-Dem and the town and surrounds itself is strongly so. But it is unlikely that unless either Labour can convince Lewes Lib-Dems to back them, or the Lib-Dems can convince Labour Brightonians that either will be able to beat the Tory vote.
Having said all that I don’t think Labour couldn’t win either again, indeed in 2015 if the coalition continue their disastrous assult on the public sector, but it would mean Labour uniting the left vote behind them and with the Greens as a credible alternative in Brighton and Hove, it seems increasingly likely that in the short term at least, these boundaries will give the Tories two fairly solid seats in 2015 with the Greens their one.
I have compiled the results from the 2011 local elections and given a projected result of the proposed constituencies. A warning for the viewer, although the Pavillion and Hove North projections would be fairly accurate as all 4 parties stood in every ward (except with a few Lib-Dem exceptions). Lewes and East Brighton is harder because only the Tories consistently stood in all the wards across the constituency. Hence the level of Labour, Lib-Dem and Green support is probably suppressed.
Thanks for providing the first serious analysis based on the most recent results.